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Comparison of the Price of oil
with the Price of Diesel
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February 29, 2008: I've begun to track the price of oil and compare to the price of diesel. My thinking is that oil prices will change, then the diesel prices follow later. But I want to know the usual pattern. How many days after an oil price change does the diesel price change? Why do I want to know?  
A few weeks ago, I purchased the Transfer Flow toolbox/fuel tank which increased my fuel capacity to 75 gallons. That gives me a longer range while towing but it also gives me a chance to choose WHEN I buy diesel. For example, the last time we purchased fuel was on February 19 after returning from a California trip. We paid $3.38/gallon. Diesel is currently selling for $3.70/gallon, but I should be able to hold off for quit a while hoping the price will fall. In theory, if I learn the number of days it takes for diesel to change price after oil changes price, it will help me to decide when I should refuel. Let's make up a scenario: Today's oil price is nearly $102/barrel. Let's say tomorrow the price drops to $95/barrel. How long should I wait to get the best price on diesel? I hope following the oil and diesel prices will make a pattern apparent. The real time oil price is above while I use an average between Ehrenberg, Arizona and Eloy, Arizona at Flying J for the diesel prices. If you happen to notice a pattern, how about
Search for gas/diesel prices by US Zip Code
AZ Price Local Observation
Date Crude Oil Diesel Notes
2/18/08 95.60 3.32
2/19/08 99.60 3.32
2/20/08 100.70 3.43
2/21/08 98.23 3.43
2/22/08 98.81 3.46 $3.44 at Safeway in Medford
2/25/08 100.88 3.52 $3.68 at 76 in Medford
2/26/08 101.15 3.54 $3.70 in Medford at 76
2/27/08 99.64 3.54 $3.70 at 76 in Medford at 76
2/28/08 101.59 3.56 $3.70 in Medford at 76
2/29/08 102.59 3.50 $3.70 in Medford at 76
3/1/08 101.84 3.58 $3.50 price yesterday reflects a strangely low price of $3.44 in Ehrenberg, AZ
3/2/08 101.80 3.54 $3.62 in Eloy but $3.45 in Ehrenberg
3/3/08 102.40 3.58 $3.65 @ Safeway/$3.80 @ 76
3/4/08 99.95 3.60 Still $3.80 at 76
3/5/08 104.52 3.61 Still $3.65 at Safeway
3/6/08 104.70 3.61  
3/7/08 105.15 3.70 $3.69 @ Safeway/$3.85 @ 76
3/8/08 105.15 3.725 Still $3.85 at 76
3/9/08 105.15 3.775 $3.70 @ Fred Meyer
3/10/08 107.90 3.785 $3.80 @ Safeway, $3.90 @ 76
3/11/08 108.75 3.82  
3/12/08 109.90 3.85 $3.81 at Safeway, $3.95 @ 76
3/13/08 110.24 3.86 Anne (a reader) reports diesel at $4.04 in Massachusetts
3/14/08 110.15 3.87 $3.97 at 76
3/17/08* 106.11 3.91 $3.88 at Safeway/$3.94 at 76
Rod, a reader, reports diesel at $4.29 in Palm Springs, California
3/18/08 109.42 3.94 $3.91 sneaking up at Safeway, still $3.94 at 76
3/19/08 102.13 3.93 Still $3.91 at Safeway, $4.10 at 76
3/20/08 101.84 3.94 Still $3.91 at Safeway, $4.10 at 76
3/21/08 101.84 3.94 $4.10 at 76, $3.83 at Fred Meyer in Grants Pass
3/24/08 100.30 3.94  
3/25/08 101.22 3.94 Medford 76 is back to $4
3/26/08 105.90 3.93  
3/27/08 107.58 3.93 Medford 76: $4; Safeway: $3.95
3/28/08 105.64 3.93 76: $4; Safeway: $3.93
3/31/08 101.58 3.93 76: $3.96; Safeway: $3.93
4/1/08 100.98 3.915 $3.83 at Fred Meyer, Grants Pass
4/2/08 104.83 3.915 $3.98 at 76
4/3/08 103.83 3.915  
4/4/08 106.11 3.915  
4/7/08 109.09 3.925 $4.09 @ 76; $3.93 @ Safeway
4/8/08 108.50 3.95 unchanged in Medford
4/9/08 110.87 3.955 $4.15 at $76
4/10/08 110.11 3.97  
4/11/08 110.14 3.97  
4/14/08 111.76 3.99  
4/15/08 113.24 4.01 $4.13 at Safeway
4/16/08 114.93 4.01 $4.39 at the Ashland Shell
4/17/08 114.86 4.02 $4.17 at Safeway
4/18/08 116.76 4.02 $4.17 at Fred Meyer/Grants Pass
4/21/08 116.63 4.02 $4.23 at Safeway
4/22/08 118.07 4.02 $4.26 at Safeway
4/24/08 116.06 4.04  
4/28/08 118.75 4.06  
4/29/08 115.63 4.06  
4/30/08 113.46 4.06  
5/1/08 112.52 4.07 $4.37 @ Safeway
5/2/08 116.25 4.03 $4.23 @ Fred Meyer in Grants Pass
5/5/08 119.97 4.02  
5/6/08 121.84 4.04  
5/7/08 123.57 4.05  
5/8/08 123.69 4.07  
5/9/08 125.96 4.10  
5/13/08 125.66 4.27 $4.35 @ Fred Meyer in Grants Pass
5/14/08 124.22 4.30  
5/15/08 124.12 4.34  
5/16/08 126.29 4.36  
5/19/08 126.72 4.45  
5/20/08 129.06 4.47  
5/21/08 133.17 4.52  
5/22/08 130.81 4.62  
5/23/08 132.19 4.67  
5/26/08 132.94 4.72  
5/27/08 128.85 4.73  
5/28/08 131.03 4.73  
5/29/08 126.62 4.73  
5/30/08 127.35 4.72 $4.84 at Safeway/Medford
6/2/08 127.76 4.705  
6/3/08 124.24 4.685  
6/4/08 122.30 4.66 $4.82 @ Medford Safeway
6/5/08 127.79 4.64  
6/9/08 134.35 4.65  
6/10/08 131.31 4.65  
6/11/08 136.38 4.65  
6/12/08 136.74 4.64  
6/13/08 134.86 4.64  
6/16/08 134.61 4.64  
6/17/08 134.01 4.62  
6/18/08 135.85 4.62  
6/19/08 132.60 4.61  
6/20/08 135.36 4.61  
6/23/08 136.74 4.59  
6/24/08 137.00 4.59  
6/25/08 134.55 4.59  
6/26/08 139.64 4.59  
6/27/08 140.21 4.58  
6/30/08 140.00 4.60  
7/2/08 143.57 4.64  
7/3/08 145.29 4.68  
7/4/08 144.18 4.69  
7/5/08 145.29 4.70  
7/7/08 141.37 4.73  
7/8/08 136.04 4.72  
7/9/08 135.85 4.70  
7/14/08 145.18 4.70  
7/15/08 138.74 4.68 Medford Safeway: $4.84
7/16/08 134.60 4.64  
7/19/08 129.47 4.52  
7/23/08 124.44 4.49  
7/24/08 125.63 4.47  
7/28/08 124.73 4.41 $4.79 at Medford Safeway
7/29/08 122.19 4.41  
7/30/08 126.77 4.36  
7/31/08 123.98 4.33  
8/1/08 125.10 4.31  
8/4/08 121.41 4.27  
8/5/08 119.17 4.23  
8/6/08 118.58 4.22 Paid $4.79 at 76 for partial fill up
8/7/08 120.02 4.17  
8/8/08 115.05 4.15  
8/11/08 114.40 4.09  
8/12/08 113.00 4.08  
8/13/08 116.00 4.07  
8/15/08 113.77 4.04  
8/18/08 112.87 4.03  
8/19/08 115.17 4.00  
8/20/08 115.56 3.99  
8/21/08 121.18 3.98  
8/22/08 114.59 3.97  
8/25/08 115.11 3.97  
8/26/08 116.27 3.96  
9/8/08 106.34 3.87  
9/10/2008 102.58 3.83  
9/11/2008 100.87 3.83  
9/12/2008 101.18 3.83  
9/16/2008 91.15 3.75  
9/19/08 102.75 3.69  
9/24/08 105.73 3.67  
9/25/08 108.02 3.68  
9/26/2008 106.89 3.68  
10/1/2008 98.53 3.63  
10/3/2008 93.88 3.63  
10/7/2008 90.06 3.51  
10/8/2008 88.90 3.49  
10/9/2008 86.59 3.44  
10/13/2008 81.19 3.31  
10/15/08 74.54 3.29  
10/16/08 69.85 3.25  
10/17/08 71.85 3.20  
10/21/08 74.25 3.14  
10/22/08 66.75 3.11  
10/23/08 67.84 3.06  
10/27/08 63.22 2.83  
10/28/08 62.73 2.82  
10/29/08 67.50 2.75  
10/30/08 65.96 2.74  
10/31/08 67.81 2.71  
11/3/08 63.91 2.69  
11/4/08 70.53 2.69  
11/5/08 65.30 2.68  
11/6/08 60.77 2.67 $3.09 best price in the Rogue Valley
11/7/08 61.04 2.63 $2.99 @ 76 in Phoenix
11/13/08 59.39 2.48  
11/14/08 57.04 2.47 Still 2.99 in Phoenix
11/18/08 54.39 2.40  
11/19/08 53.62 2.34 $2.89 in Phoenix, Oregon
11/20/08 49.62 2.33 Note the price is half what it was in mid-July.
11/21/08 50.96 2.26  
11/24/08 55.62 2.20  
11/25/08 52.01 2.20  
12/1/08 50.68 2.17  
12/2/08 48.43 2.15  
12/3/08 48.55 2.15  
12/4/08 45.21 2.07 I've discovered diesel in AZ is 8¢/gal cheaper than truck diesel
12/5/08 42.92 2.03  
12/8/08 43.71 1.98  
12/9/08 42.07 1.98  
12/10/08 43.52 1.97  
12/11/08 47.98 1.92  
12/12/08 46.28 1.91  
12/15/08 44.51 1.86  
12/16/08 43.60 1.86  
12/17/08 40.06 1.86 $2.29 is the best price in Medford
12/18/08 36.22 1.86  
12/26/08 37.71 1.99  
12/27/08 37.71 1.99  
1/1/09 42.66 2.02  
1/6/09 48.58 2.08 1.92 in Yuma
1/7/09 42.63 2.10  
1/8/09 41.70 2.11  
1/9/09 40.83 2.13  
1/14/09 37.28 2.12  
1/15/09 35.40 2.16  
1/17/09 42.57 2.16  
1/19/09 40.90 2.15  
1/20/09 36.51 2.15  
1/21/09 43.55 2.10 Paid $2.22 in Parker, AZ and $2.45 in Bishop, CA
1/23/09 46.47 2.10  
1/26/09 45.73 2.09  
1/27/09 41.42 2.08  
1/28/09 42.19 2.08  
1/29/09 41.44 2.07  
1/30/09 41.68 2.07  
2/2/09 40.08 2.06  
2/3/09 40.78 2.06  
2/4/09 40.32 2.06  
2/6/09 40.17 2.05  
2/9/09 39.60 2.05  
2/10/09 37.55 2.05  
2/11/09 35.94 2.05  
2/12/09 33.98 2.04  
2/13/09 37.51 2.04  
2/17/09 34.93 2.04  
2/18/09 34.62

2.04

  
2/19/09 38.90 2.02  
2/20/09 40.03 2.00  
2/23/09 38.44 1.98 $2.23 in Medford
2/24/09 39.96 1.96  
2/25/09 42.50 1.93  
2/26/09 45.22 1.93  
2/27/09 44.76 1.93  
3/2/09 40.15 1.93  
3/3/09 41.65 1.91 I saw $2.26 in Medford
3/4/09 45.38 1.90  
3/5/09 43.61 1.89  
3/6/09 45.52 1.88 $2.13 at Medford Safeway
3/9/09 47.07 1.84 $2.19 at Medford 76
3/10/09 45.71 1.84  
3/11/09 42.33 1.83  
3/12/09 46.39 1.79 2.11 at Medford Safeway
3/13/09 46.25 1.79  
3/18/09 49.73 1.84  
3/19/09 51.61 1.84  
3/20/09 51.06 1.87  
3/23/09 53.78 1.99  
3/24/09 53.98 2.035  
3/25/09 52.77 2.07  
3/26/09 54.34 2.07  
3/27/09 52.38 2.11  
3/30/09 48.39 2.11  
3/31/09 49.66 2.11  
4/1/09 48.39 2.09  
4/2/09 52.64 2.085 $2.23 at Medford Safeway
4/3/09 52.51 2.10  
4/6/09 51.05 2.12 $2.27 at Medford Safeway
4/7/09 48.40 2.12  
4/8/09 49.92 2.12  
4/9/09 52.24 2.12  
4/17/09 50.33 2.12  
4/23/09 49.61 2.07 $2.29 at Medford Safeway
4/29/09 50.76 2.04  
5/1/09 53.19 2.04  
5/4/09 54.47 2.03 $2.27 at Medford Safeway
5/5/09 53.84 2.01  
5/6/09 56.34 2.02  
5/14/09 58.62 2.13 $2.32 at Medford Safeway
5/15/09 56.34 2.14  
5/20/09 59.65 2.14  
5/21/09 59.65 2.14  
5/22/09 61.67 2.16  
5/26/09 62.45 2.19  
5/27/09 62.90 2.19  
5/28/09 65.08 2.22  
5/29/09 66.31 2.26  
6/1/09 68.58 2.31  
6/2/09 68.56 2.35  
6/5/09 68.32 2.39  
6/10/09 71.33 2.42  
6/11/09 72.68 2.44  
6/26/09 69.16 2.52  
       

March 9, 2008: Note: Bought 28 gallons of diesel at Fred Meyer for ten cent discount, paid $3.60 per gallon. I figured it was the best I This photo came from freakingnews.comcould do for a while with the price of oil increasing. All tanks are full.

*March 17, 2008: With the price of Safeway diesel in Medford getting very close the price of 76 fuel, I'm going to guess that the reason diesel is always cheaper than other stations is because their volumn of sales is much lower. Flying J seems to react almost im-mediately to an oil price change while Safeway lingers behind at old prices for quite a while. Perhaps Safeway is selling fuel cheaper because it is older priced fuel so they are still at the old prices until they refill their tanks. If that's the case, when/if oil begins to drop in price, Safeway should be above the competitor prices for a while until they refill with cheaper fuel. We'll watch to learn if that's the case.

April 7, 2008: With the price of oil increasing and having driven nearly 800 miles since March 17, we decided to fill both tanks. It took 43.5 gallons to fill at Fred Meyer. Their advertised price was $3.85 but we got ten cents off because we are good shoppers at "Freddies". So we paid $3.75/gallon. Note that Medford's best price is $3.93/gallon.
May 23, 2008: Filled both tanks today at Fred Meyer at $4.32/gallon. Least expensive diesel in Medford is $4.73 so we saved 40 cents per gallon. We are hoping this amount of fuel will last the entire summer since this fill-up today cost $284.66. With the price of oil above $132 per barrel and still climbing, diesel will likely be above $5 in a couple of weeks.

June 24, 2008: Today's Oregonian had a sobering article concerning the toll high diesel prices are taking on the trucking industry. You can read it here.
November 6, 2008: We must be in Salem, Oregon this weekend for warranty work on our trailer. I have not filled my external tank since May 23 waiting for the price of fuel to lower. The lowest price in southern Oregon today is $3.09/gallon but in Salem, the price is $2.89. I have just enough fuel to reach Salem where I plan to fill all tanks before returning to southern Oregon. Maybe the price in Salem will be even lower this weekend since the price of oil dropped $5 today.
December 27, 2008: I've been following the prizes at the Ehrenberg, Arizona Flying J since I began this page. We finally have made it and were able to put 54 gallons into the truck. Of course the place was crowded. We are in line at the far right. Diesel was $1.99/gallon, an increase over the last week. Ehrenberg, AZ
March 20, 2009: I've been holding off the purchase of diesel waiting for the bottom. Diesel prices are increasing in Arizona and Oregon usually follows so I filled both tanks today at $2.09/gallon. The price of oil is increasing too so everthing is pointing to the prices of diesel going to increase. The only mistake I may have made is the possibility of driving to Salem next weekend to sell the kayaks. The prices in Salem are usually better than southern Oregon. Today, they are $1.99/gallon.
 

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